Lub caij hlau tsis muaj kev vam meej, nyiaj kaum tau los txog qhov kawg. Tus nqi steel tam sim no nyob rau hauv qhov sib npaug nruj. Rebar steel lub lim tiam cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm, ntau lawm nce, cov khoom muag poob qis, lub rooj yuav tsum tuaj tos me ntsis. Nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm tus nqi poob, lub hauv paus nqaim, qhov poob yuav tsis nres. Kev ua lag luam kev ntseeg siab tseem tsis muaj zog. Ua li cas rau lub lim tiam tom ntej?
Cov khoom nyoos
Cov khoom seem:
Lub lim tiam no tshem tawm kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog. Steel profits yeej ib txwm nyob rau hauv ib ncig ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab poob, seem ntawm cov khoom siv nruj, cov nqi txuas ntxiv poob qis qhov tseem ceeb. Tab sis tus nqi nce thaiv, luv luv - lub sij hawm mus rau hauv ib qho teeb meem sib txawv. Lub sij hawm luv luv yuav tsum tau ua lag luam tsis muaj zog, poob qis lossis nqaim.
Hlau ore:
Tus nqi hlau ore tau poob qis rau lub lim tiam no thiab kev ua lag luam mus rau qhov tsaus ntuj. Lub hauv paus ua rau poob tsis tu ncua tseem yog qhov poob ntawm steel mills, steel tsis txav, kev cia siab ntawm vaj tse tsis zoo. Lub sij hawm luv luv hmoov tseem muaj qhov poob loj dua.
Billet:
Lub lim tiam no, tus nqi ntawm steel billet tsis muaj zog. Cov khoom tiav kev lag luam kev ua tau zoo tsis zoo, downstream steel tuam txhab yuav billet nrog siv lub ntsiab. Tam sim no, cov txiaj ntsig poob ntawm billet yog 127-231 yuan/ton. Tangshan billet tus nqi yuav tsum ruaj khov thiab tsis muaj zog rau lub lim tiam tom ntej.
Coke:
Lub lim tiam no lub lag luam coke hauv tsev ua haujlwm ruaj khov ib ntus. Hais txog kev muab khoom, cov nqi hluav taws xob tau poob qis, thiab cov khoom siv coke yog txwv. Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, steel zeb poob ntxiv zuj zus, kev ua lag luam pom muaj kev txaus siab rau kev noj qab haus huv. Kev lag luam coke xav tias yuav ruaj khov nyob rau lub sijhawm luv.
Pig hlau:
Lub lim tiam no npua hlau lag luam qis qis. Tam sim no ntau thaj chaw npua hlau txo tus nqi, tus neeg ua lag luam qis - nqi khoom. Qhov kev thov rau npua hlau yog tsawg thiab cov khoom siv siab tsis zoo. Feem ntau cov hlau ua haujlwm 'cov khoom lag luam yog nyob rau hauv qhov tsim nyog, thaum ob peb cov hlau ua haujlwm muaj cov khoom qis lossis cov khoom tsis zoo, uas me ntsis txhawb cov nqi hlau. Lub sij hawm luv luv npua hlau lag luam yuav tsum tsis muaj zog.
Ntev cov khoom hauv
Cov khoom siv hauv tsev:
Lub lim tiam no tsim cov khoom lag luam tus nqi tag nrho kev hloov pauv tsis muaj zog yog muab qhov tseem ceeb rau. National tsev cov ntaub ntawv trading ntim yog bleak, yav tav su bearish sentiment aggravated. Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, qhov kub thiab txias tau poob, nrog rau kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev noj qab haus huv, kev thauj mus los tau raug thaiv, thiab nws nyuaj rau kev txhawb nqa tus nqi. Tam sim no, ntev flow steel mills yog nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm poob. Cov tub lag luam feem ntau yuav txo tau lub tsev rau khoom kom tsis txhob muaj kev pheej hmoo, ua tau raws li kev xa khoom zoo. Kev hloov kho tsis muaj zog yog xav kom lub lim tiam tom ntej.
Cov hlau tshwj xeeb:
Lub lim tiam no, kev lag luam steel ruaj khov hauv kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog. Ib feem ntawm kev saib xyuas ntawm steel ntau lawm, thiab kev thov yog qhov tsis muaj zog. Downstream thov kev ua tau zoo yog qhov tsis muaj zog, kev lag luam tag nrho yog dav dav. Cov kab mob sib kis tau muab faib rau ntau qhov chaw, cuam tshuam rau kev thauj mus los thiab kev tsim kho. Tus nqi tsis muaj zog xav tias yuav hloov kho lub lim tiam tom ntej.
Industrial kab:
Lub lim tiam no kev lag luam kab lag luam thawj zaug muaj zog tom qab tsis muaj zog. Disk siab qhib qis mus, kev lag luam siab hloov pauv tsis pub dawb, kev ua lag luam tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab thaum tav su, tsuas yog xav tau mus ntim, nqi nce qhov chaw txwv. Tus nqi poob siab xav tias yuav tsis muaj zog rau lub lim tiam tom ntej.
Proximate teeb meem:
Lub lim tiam no kev lag luam hauv tsev poob qis dua. Kev txwv ntau lawm hauv qee qhov chaw dua, cov khoom siv raw khoom lag luam tsis muaj tus nqi lag luam. Cov lag luam feem ntau muaj kev ntseeg siab me ntsis hauv kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej. Nrog rau qhov kub thiab txias ntxiv, cov kev xav tau steel kuj tau nce mus rau lub caij nyoog ntawm cov tsoos off-season, kev thov tau raug txwv ntxiv. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, hom nqi los yog yuav nyob rau hauv qhov teeb meem uas twb muaj lawm los co cov tsis muaj zog consolidation.
Cov yeeb nkab:
Cov yeeb nkab lag luam poob tsis tu ncua lub lim tiam no. Cov kab mob sib kis tau tshwm sim nyob rau ntau qhov chaw, uas muaj qee yam cuam tshuam rau kev tsim khoom thiab kev thauj mus los. Tube Hoobkas muaj kev npaj ntau dua los kho qhov kev npaj ntau lawm, kev ua lag luam hloov pauv qee zaum kub thiab qee zaum txias. Lub hauv paus ntawm kev xa khoom thiab kev xav tau tsis muaj zog, thiab kev txaus siab ntawm kev yuav khoom hauv lub davhlau ya nyob twg tsis muaj zog. Cov yeeb nkab lag luam tus nqi tsis muaj zog, xav tias yuav co lub lim tiam tom ntej ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog.
Cov ntaub ntawv tiaj tus
Sawb:
Lub lim tiam no, kev poob siab ntawm lub sawb tsis muaj zog. Lub lim tiam no, kev lag luam sawb hlau raug cuam tshuam los ntawm kev tsis ruaj khov ntawm cov qwj poob siab thiab qhov txwv kev tso tawm ntawm cov kev xav tau qis qis, tag nrho cov kev lag luam tsis zoo, cov khoom lag luam kuj tseem cuam tshuam rau kev ceev faj. Kev ua haujlwm qis qis qis heev, tsuas yog ib tus neeg tsim khoom lag luam qis. Nyob rau hauv broadband, manufacturers coj lub tswv yim rau destock, downstream procurement txaus siab tsis muaj zog, kev ua lag luam mus ob peb vas tsis zoo. Zuag qhia tag nrho, nws xav tias yuav tsis muaj zog ntxiv rau lub lim tiam tom ntej.
Kub dov:
Lub lim tiam no lub teb chaws kub ntim mainstream lag luam tus nqi nce thiab poob ruaj khov. Kub ntim lag luam nqe hovering qis. Volume txuas ntxiv rau kev poob siab, kev lag luam kev xav ceev faj. Qhov chaw lag luam tej yam kev mob qhia tias qaug zog. lig rau lub caij noj tsawg, qhov kev thov sab ntawm cov qauv tsis muaj zog yog qhov nyuaj rau kev hloov, nws xav tias lub lim tiam tom ntej kub ntim nqi nqaim fluctuation ua haujlwm.
Medium phaj:
Lub lim tiam no nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov tsis muaj zog phaj, tag nrho cov kev pauv nyob rau hauv dav dav. Tag nrho cov khoom muag los ntawm kev poob qis kom nce, lub rooj yuav tsum tau nce. Steel poob rau hauv ib qho kev nthuav dav, kev lag luam kev lag luam siab tsis loj. Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, nrog kev sib sib zog nqus ntawm lub quarter thib plaub, qhov kev cia siab tag nrho tsis zoo, thiab tus nqi txhim kho lub zog yog pom tseeb tsis txaus. Lub lim tiam tom ntej yuav tsum ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog phaj.
Lub lim tiam tom ntej kev kwv yees
Kev lag luam kev xav tau nyob rau hauv kev ntxhov siab rau lub lim tiam no, nrog kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo txuas ntxiv mus ua lag luam. Ntawm macro pem hauv ntej, cov tsev txhab nyiaj txoj cai tau qhia txog cov nyiaj qiv tshwj xeeb los txhawb nqa kev xa khoom vaj tsev, thiab txuas ntxiv mus rau txoj cai tswj hwm kev xa vaj tsev. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tseem muaj cov peev nyiaj txaus. Kev lag luam, lub lim tiam no kub hlau lub hli-rau-hli lub caij nplooj zeeg, steel ntau lawm hli-rau-hli nce. Tab sis raws li cov nqi steel poob, qhov poob ntawm steel mills widened, qee lub mills sab qaum teb pib txo cov txheej txheem ntau lawm. Kev ua lag luam xav tias yuav nce ntau lawm thaum lub caij off-season. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, coking thee profit yog siab, cov coke coke nqi poob sharply; Tag nrho cov khoom siv thiab kev thov ntawm cov hlau ore tsis muaj zog, thiab tseem muaj peev xwm poob qis hauv lub sijhawm luv. Tom qab lub Kaum Ib Hlis macro cuam tshuam txuas ntxiv tso tawm, ua tib zoo saib xyuas kev thov kev ua haujlwm thiab kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom. Kev lag luam tsis ntev los no saib xyuas cov lus tawm tswv yim tsis zoo ua ntej nkag mus rau qhov tseeb qhov tseeb, cov phaj lossis txuas ntxiv cov haujlwm tsis muaj zog. Lub lim tiam tom ntej yuav tsum muaj kev ruaj khov thiab ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog me ntsis.
