Txij li lub Cuaj Hli, cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hlau tseem nyob hauv qhov nqaim ntawm qhov tsis sib xws hauv kev ua lag luam, "kub cuaj" tsoos ncov lub caij steel kev lag luam xav tau qhia tias "tsis muaj zog rov qab" lub xeev, downstream davhlau ya nyob twg cov lag luam hauv Tshuag raws li kev yuav khoom, qhov kev thov. sab yog qeeb rov qab, tab sis cov kev ntsuas macro los txhawb kev noj txuas ntxiv mus rau thaj av, ua ke nrog cov nqi hlau ntau lawm, cov nqi steel tam sim no hauv qab kev txhawb nqa txuas ntxiv.
Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm Hangzhou kev lag luam cov qauv steel 45 # 50mm yog 4000 yuan / ton, nce 5 yuan / tuj txij thaum pib lub Cuaj Hli, nce ntawm 0.13%, txij li lub Rau Hli, cov khoom siv steel nqi tau nyob rau hauv 3970-4070 yuan / tuj poob siab ntau yam, qhov chaw steel nqi hloov pauv yog nyob rau hauv 100 yuan / ton. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm cov qauv hlau hauv Hangzhou lag luam tau poob los ntawm 630 yuan / tuj los ntawm tus nqi siab hauv lub Peb Hlis, uas yog nyob rau theem qis ntawm tus nqi hauv ob xyoos dhau los.
Txog rau tam sim no, cov qauv steel nqi hauv lub Cuaj Hli nqaim volatility. Ntawm ib sab, qhov kev thov kawg tau maj mam rov qab los. Qee lub lag luam nyob rau hauv lub downstream davhlau ya nyob twg muaj tsis txaus cov lus txiav txim tshiab, feem ntau yog los ntawm ib tug Tshuag, thiab qhov kev thov yog qeeb rov qab, uas yog lub ntsiab yog vim li cas rau lub siab ntawm steel nqi. Ntawm qhov tod tes, muaj zog macro kev cia siab thiab kev txhawb nqa tus nqi txwv lub lag luam poob qhov chaw. Cov kev ntsuas macro tsis ntev los no los txhawb kev noj haus tau txhawb kev lag luam kev ntseeg siab, kev tsim vaj tsev, vaj tsev, tsheb tsim thiab lwm yam kev lag luam tau qhia txog kev ntsuas zoo, kev lag luam rau lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws xav tau yuav tsum khaws, qhov muaj zog macro kev cia siab tau muab rau tam sim no steel nqi txhawb. Tsis ntev los no, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw xws li ore thiab coke tau nce, ua rau cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm steel mills nce ntxiv, thiab kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi steel ntawm tus nqi kawg kuj nce ntxiv.
Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub Cuaj Hli, lub mainstream structural steel ntau lawm tuam txhab uas muag tau teev tus nqi ntawm kaum hnub piv nrog rau yav dhau los tus nqi ruaj khov, steel zeb nqe hom phiaj yog qhov zoo, tam sim no East Tuam Tshoj, Central Tuam Tshoj thiab Hebei cheeb tsam 45 # teev lub hauv paus nqi Huai Steel tshwj xeeb steel 4150 yuan/ton, Zhongtian Steel 4200 yuan/ton, Chengde Jianlong 4130 yuan/ton, Jiyuan Steel 4190 yuan/ton, Anyang Yongxing 3900 yuan/ton. Raws li tuaj yeem pom ncaj qha los ntawm daim duab 2, txij li tus nqi steel qauv tau hloov pauv hauv qhov nqaim nyob rau lub Rau Hli, cov npe ntawm tus nqi steel mills tau ruaj khov, thiab txawm tias tus nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam raug txo qis, qhov poob tsuas yog { {8}} yuan/ton. Nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev lag luam steel khoom, muaj ntau yam ntawm tus nqi thiab kev them nqi, xws li tus nqi hnyav, tus nqi, tus nqi nce tus nqi, mus rau tus nqi khoom, thiab lwm yam, thiab cov nqi teev yog cov nqi muag khoom steel tshaj tawm los ntawm lub steel zeb los yog tus neeg muag khoom, thiab hauv cov txheej txheem muag khoom tiag tiag, nws yuav muab cov neeg siv khoom sib txawv ntawm cov nqi nyiam raws li tus neeg yuav khoom ntim, txoj kev them nyiaj thiab lwm yam xwm txheej.
Feem ntau cov steel mills tam sim no siv ntau yam ntawm tus nqi qauv, qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov nqi teev feem ntau yog siv nyob rau hauv ib qho, rau qee qhov, qhov hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi teev, tab sis kuj qhia txog steel zeb rau yav tom ntej steel nqi kev cia siab. Txij li thaum Lub Rau Hli, qhov chaw steel nqi tau hloov pauv ntau zaus nyob rau hauv tus nqi ntawm kwv yees li 100 yuan / tuj, thiab cov npe ntawm tus nqi steel mills kuj tau ua qee yam cuam tshuam. Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis, qhov chaw steel nqi tau nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob, thiab nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Cuaj Hli, cov nqi teev npe ntawm cov hlau zeb tau ruaj khov dua, uas tseem qhia tau tias cov zeb zeb muaj zog rau cov nqi rov qab steel, muab qhov tam sim no qhov chaw steel nqi txhawb nqa.
Cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm cov hlau yog hlau ore thiab coke, thiab cov nqi hloov pauv ntawm cov ore thiab coke muaj qhov cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau tus nqi ntawm cov hlau ntau lawm. Zhuo Chuang cov ntaub ntawv tus nqi saib xyuas, tam sim no hlau nplua hmoov Rizhao Chaw nres nkoj Australian mine PB hmoov 61.5% ntawm tus nqi lag luam tshiab kawg 920 yuan / tuj, nce 15.14% txij thaum pib lub Rau Hli; Coke chaw nres nkoj quasi thawj coke 2170 yuan/ton los yog li ntawd, nrog rau tus nqi ntawm raw coke thee nce, tus nqi ntawm coke qhauj nce, tsis ntev los no ib tug neeg coke qhauj pib tentatively qw li 100-110 yuan/ton. Hlau ore thiab coke suav txog 70% -80% ntawm cov khoom siv raw rau kev tsim cov khoom siv hlau, thiab kev nce nqi ntawm cov hlau ore thiab coke ncaj qha txhawb kev nce nqi ntawm cov hlau mills.
Tam sim no, tus nqi tsim khoom ntawm cov qauv hlau 45 # 50mm nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem ntev ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom me thiab nruab nrab yog kwv yees li 3961 yuan / tuj, nce ntawm 258 yuan / tuj piv nrog rau lub Rau Hli pib, nce ntawm 6.97% , thiab cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm steel mills tau nce ntau. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov chaw cov qauv steel nqi tau nyob rau hauv 100 yuan / tuj ntawm rov oscillations, qhov nce hauv cov nqi tau compressed cov nyiaj tau los ntawm steel zeb, uas ua rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm steel zeb txij thaum pib lub Rau Hli {{ 8}} yuan/ton down mus rau tam sim no -176 yuan/ton, ib tug txo ntawm 141.10%, feem ntau steel mills txij thaum Lub rau hli ntuj mus ua hauj lwm nyob rau hauv ib tug poob lub xeev. Tam sim no, lub tshuab hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob ntawm cov hlau mills yog nyob rau theem siab, feem ntau yog rau ore thiab coke tsuas yog yuav tsum tau yuav, cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm steel mills yog siab, thiab steel mills feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm kev ua haujlwm poob, thiab cov khoom siv hlau mills yog siab. steel mills muaj lub hom phiaj zoo tus nqi.
Excavator muag tau raug suav tias yog "cua vane" ntawm kev txhim kho kev lag luam hauv tsev, cov khoom lag luam steel hauv kev lag luam qis qis mus rau excavator-dominated siv machinery kev lag luam steel accounted li 40% ntawm cov qauv steel noj. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Kev Tsim Kho Machinery Industry Association, thaum Lub Yim Hli xyoo no, 26 excavator manufacturers muag 13,1{{9}0 units ntawm ntau hom excavators, nce 0.05 lab units los ntawm lub hli dhau los, nce 3.97%; Kev muag khoom hauv tsev ntawm 0.57 lab units, nce ntawm 0.06 lab units los ntawm lub hli dhau los, nce 11.76%.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv, excavator muag cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv lub yim hli ntuj tau khaws tom qab plaub lub hlis sib law liag ntawm poob, uas yog feem ntau yog tsav los ntawm kev taw qhia txog cov kev cai nyob rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tse. Excavator yog dav siv nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov hom ntawm engineering tsim, lub rhiab heev teb rau cov kev hloov nyob rau hauv downstream thov, vaj tse peev nyob rau hauv lub thib peb lub hlis twg, vaj tse tshiab pib stabilize thiab txhim kho, downstream thov rau kev tsim kho machinery yuav tsum tau txhim kho marginal, nrog rau cov kev pab cuam. kev txhawb nqa ntawm kev noj thiab ua kom nrawm rau kev tsaws ntawm cov nuj nqis tshwj xeeb thiab lwm yam kev cai lij choj, cov kev xav tau tom ntej ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg xav kom txhim kho ntxiv. Zuag qhia tag nrho, sab macro los txhawb kev lag luam rov qab los ua lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb, ntau txoj cai los txhim kho kev lag luam thiab txhawb kev noj qab haus huv yuav tsum txuas ntxiv dag zog, ua ke nrog cov nqi tsim khoom steel kom nce ntxiv, "kub cuaj" tsoos ncov lub caij, steel kev lag luam davhlau ya nyob twg thov tsis muaj zog rov qab lub xeev tau xav tias yuav txhim kho ntxiv, xav tias yuav ruaj khov rau lub Cuaj Hlis steel nqi zog ua haujlwm.
