Hauv 2023, tag nrho cov khoom siv ntawm cov khoom siv hlau tsis tau hloov pauv ntau, tab sis nyob rau hauv kev nce ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm, lub siab ntawm kev lag luam kev sib tw tau nce ntxiv, thiab qhov kev thov sab nraud tau zoo dua piv nrog xyoo 2022, tab sis lub siab coj los ntawm siab. cov khoom muag thaum pib ntawm superposition, tag nrho cov khoom siv tseem ntau dua li qhov xav tau tag nrho, ua rau tus nqi tag nrho poob. Rau xyoo 2024, kev sib tw siab ntawm cov khoom siv yuav tsis txo qis, cov txheej txheem ntawm "kev txhim kho dav dav" yuav tsis hloov pauv, kev lag luam khoom lossis tswj tau qib siab, tab sis cuam tshuam los ntawm txoj cai thiab nws cov kev hloov pauv, qhov xav tau sab yuav tsum txuas ntxiv qhov kev txhim kho txij li ib nrab xyoo ntawm xyoo 2024, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus yuav tsum tau nce me ntsis. Xyoo 2023, kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws yog qhov nyuaj thiab tsis yooj yim, txawm hais tias muaj ntau yam kev ntsuas los txhawb kev noj hauv qib macro feem ntau, tab sis qhov cuam tshuam ntawm vaj tse, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse poob qis thiab lwm yam, qhov kev thov qis qis ntawm kev lag luam. kev lag luam steel tsis muaj zog, ua ke nrog nce nqi raw khoom, cov qauv steel nqi yog nyob rau hauv qhov kev ua si tsis tu ncua ntawm tus nqi siab, kev cia siab muaj zog thiab tsis muaj zog qhov tseeb, steel nqi raws li tag nrho qhia poob, tab sis los ntawm lub quarter thib plaub kev ua tau zoo, Kev thov maj mam coj. kom pom tseeb dua rov qab ntawm cov nqi.
Nqe: 2023 structural steel nqi poob 12.02% nyob rau hauv 2023 cov qauv steel nqi tau nce ua ntej thiab ces poob thiab tom qab ntawd sawv tom qab ib tug nqaim ntau yam ntawm shocks, raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 29, structural steel 45 # 50 hli nruab nrab nqi txhua xyoo ntawm 4166.81 yuan / tuj, piv nrog 2022 tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo poob 569.54 yuan / ton, poob ntawm 12.02%. Ntawm lawv, tus nqi siab tshaj plaws hauv lub xyoo tau tshwm sim nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Peb Hlis, tus nqi siab tshaj plaws yog 4541.67 yuan / ton, tus nqi qis tshaj plaws tshwm sim thaum lub Rau Hli, tus nqi qis tshaj yog 3908.33 yuan / ton, thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi siab thiab qis yog 633.34 yuan/ton.
Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus rau Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj, cov txheej txheem steel poob siab tau nce, feem ntau yog vim muaj cov khoom lag luam ntawm qee qhov chaw ua ntej lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, kev lag luam nquag, nrog rau kev txhawb nqa xov xwm macro, kev ua lag luam yuav tsum khaws cov kev xav tau. Txij thaum lub Peb Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli, tus nqi ntawm cov qauv hlau poob, qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev thov rov qab poob siab, kev ua lag luam tsom mus rau qhov tseem ceeb, thiab kev lag luam nyiaj txiag teeb meem hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas tau rub cov nqi khoom muag hauv tsev, thiab cov nqi hlau poob. . Txij thaum nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli mus txog rau thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, cov qauv hlau ua haujlwm hauv qhov nqaim, thiab qhov chaw hloov pauv yog nyob rau hauv 100 yuan / tuj. Kev nce nqi raw khoom tau muab tus nqi txhawb nqa, thaum qhov kev xav tau tsis muaj zog kawg tau txwv kev lag luam lees txais tus nqi siab. Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, raws li cov nqi siab thiab cov kev cia siab macro muaj zog txuas ntxiv mus, cov nqi hlau tau nce siab, tawg los ntawm tsib lub hlis poob siab. Nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, huab cua txias heev, cov yam ntxwv ntawm lub caij ntuj sov xav tau tshwm sim, qhov kev thov poob qis, thiab tus nqi siab thiab kev cia siab ntawm macro tsis txo qhov kev txhawb nqa, thiab cov nqi hlau siab oscillated.
Kev Pabcuam: Hauv xyoo 2023, Tuam Tshoj tus qauv steel tsim muaj peev xwm tau nce nrawm dua, nrog rau kev txhim kho zoo, feem ntau hauv lub tebchaws txoj cai qaij, kev lag luam vaj tsev poob qis hauv qab qhov kev thov rebar tsis muaj zog, thaum tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov qauv hlau zoo dua. tshaj rebar thiab lwm yam ntau yam. Kev txaus siab ntawm steel mills los tsim cov qauv hlau tau zoo dua qub, xws li Zhou Steel thiab lwm cov tuam txhab uas tau tsim cov rebar ua ntej, nyob rau hauv cov kev ntsuas ntawm cov qauv steel thiab rebar nqi nyiaj, kev muag khoom thiab lwm yam kev hloov ntawm cov dej. hauv thaj chaw tshiab. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev tsim muaj peev xwm tshem tawm, muaj 900, 000 tons ntawm lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm Xiwang Tshwj xeeb steel, thiab cov pas nrig me me sib xyaw nrog cov hlau rebar tau thim rov qab los ntawm keeb kwm theem vim yog kev lag luam vim li cas, thiab tam sim no ntau lawm muaj peev xwm ntawm cov pas nrig kab loj tseem muaj. Susteel yuav twv rau kev rhuav tshem thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, thiab cov qauv peev xwm yuav raug tshem tawm hauv 2023.
2023 structural steel mov sab (ntau lawm + imports) me ntsis hloov, saib xyuas cov ntaub ntawv, 2023 structural steel ntau lawm hauv 300477 lab tons, nce 0.79%. Cov khoom siv hlau xa tawm los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023 yog 103,200 tons, thiab nws tau kwv yees tias cov khoom siv hlau xa khoom hauv xyoo 2023 yuav yog 112,200 tons, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 69.58%. Hauv 2023, tag nrho cov khoom siv kawg ntawm cov qauv hlau (ntau lawm + kev xa tawm) yog 30.159,900 tons, txo qis ntawm 0.07% ntawm lub quarter dhau los. Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov poob ntawm cov qauv steel ntau lawm hauv 2023 tau nce, thiab kev txaus siab ntawm kev lag luam tau poob qis, tab sis vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm rebar ntau lawm muaj peev xwm, cov zis ntawm cov qauv steel tau nce me ntsis; Ntawm qhov tod tes, cuam tshuam los ntawm kev tsis muaj zog ntawm kev xav tau hauv tsev, cov khoom siv steel hlau tau poob qis, tab sis vim yog lub hauv paus me me hauv xyoo tas los no, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam txo qis yog qhov zoo ib yam li kev nce hauv kev tsim khoom hauv tsev. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov qauv khoom muag, hauv 2023, cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov khoom lag luam steel pom qhov sib txawv ntawm thawj qhov kev poob, tom qab ntawd nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob, thiab cov khoom lag luam sib raug zoo ntawm cov tub lag luam qhia qhov sib txawv ntawm thawj qhov nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob. Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 29, 2023, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam ntawm Tuam Tshoj 29 tus qauv steel ntau lawm cov tuam txhab soj ntsuam los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yog 812,100 tons, nce 130,900 tons los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, nce 19.22%, thiab lub xyoo siab yog 994,900 tons. thaum lub Ib Hlis lig. Raws li kev txheeb cais ntawm kev lag luam hauv zej zog, tag nrho cov khoom muag ntawm 66 kev lag luam lag luam hauv Shandong, Hebei thiab Jiangsu thiab Zhejiang cheeb tsam yog 948,600 tons, nqis 80,900 tons txij thaum kawg ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, txo qis ntawm 7.86%, thiab lub ncov ntawm lub xyoo yog 1.269,000 tons nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov Lub ob hlis ntuj.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv, lub ncov ntawm kev lag luam cov khoom lag luam tau tshwm sim nyob rau lub Ob Hlis, feem ntau tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival cov khoom muag tau nce mus rau ib theem, thawj nthwv dej ntawm kev ua lag luam tom qab 2-Lub Plaub Hlis, steel zeb cov khoom muag maj mam. pauv mus rau cov khoom muag kev sib raug zoo, steel zeb cov khoom lag luam tsis kam. Nyob rau hauv 2023, vim lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival hnub so, txij thaum lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus rau thawj ib nrab ntawm Lub Ob Hlis, cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm feem ntau steel mills, steel zeb cov khoom lag luam yog nyob rau hauv tas li tsub zuj zuj, thiab nrog rau theem rov qab ntawm kev thov nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, steel. cov khoom lag luam zeb tau poob qis. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub quarter thib ob, qhov kev xav tau qis qis qis, cov tub lag luam steel cov tswv yim tsis zoo, cov khoom lag luam steel tau rov tshwm sim dua, tom qab Lub Rau Hli steel zeb cov khoom lag luam tau nyob rau hauv keeb kwm siab ntawm kev hloov pauv me ntsis. Kev poob qis hauv cov khoom lag luam hauv zej zog feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog ntawm cov kev xav tau qis qis, cov lag luam davhlau ya nyob twg tsuas yog yuav tsum tau yuav, feem ntau cov tub lag luam tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab hauv kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej, thiab lub hom phiaj los npaj khoom yog tsawg. Txawm li cas los xij, los ntawm tsib xyoos dhau los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia hauv zej zog, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv zej zog hauv 2023 tseem nyob rau theem nrab. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov khoom sib txawv, raws li qhov muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom, nws xav tias cov qauv steel tsim yuav nthuav tawm qhov sib txawv hauv xyoo 2024, thiab nws cia siab tias cov khoom tsim steel yuav ncav cuag 32.29 lab tons hauv 2024, Kev nce ntawm 7.46% los ntawm cov zis hauv xyoo 2023. Txij li thaum cov ntshuam dependence ntawm cov qauv steel yog tsawg heev, qhov nce hauv kev tsim khoom tuaj yeem sawv cev rau kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam, thiab cov khoom ntawm cov khoom siv hlau yuav nce ntxiv hauv 2024, thiab lub siab coj los ntawm qhov nce ntawm cov khoom yuav nce rau cov nqi steel.
