Cov nqi steel hauv tsev tau ntsib kev poob qis hauv lub quarter thib ob tom qab tsim tus nqi kom zoo dua, ua ke nrog kev nce hauv steel kev thov rau kev tsim kho vaj tse hauv kev lag luam tawm tshiab, ua rau muaj kev txaus siab rau kev xa tawm hauv tsev steel. Raws li kev txheeb cais ntawm General Administration ntawm Kev lis kev cai, Tuam Tshoj tus xa tawm ntawm cov hlau nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 800.5 lab tons, nce ntawm 43.2%, txuas ntxiv kev loj hlob siab nyob rau lub Kaum Hli; Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis, Tuam Tshoj xa tawm 82.658 lab tons ntawm hlau, nce 35.6%. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev xa tawm ntim, qhov feem ntawm cov khoom xa tawm steel nyob rau lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Hli xyoo no yog kwv yees li 6.6% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv hauv tsev, uas yog siab dua li ntawm 5% rau tag nrho lub xyoo dhau los. Raws li cov npe xa tawm tshiab tshaj plaws ntawm cov hlau mills tso tawm los ntawm SMM, cov npe xa tawm thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis tseem ua tau zoo, thiab qhov nce me ntsis ntawm lub hli dhau los, thiab cov khoom xa tawm txhua xyoo yuav tsum tshaj 90 lab tons. Los ntawm qhov pom ntawm cov khoom lag luam, cov khoom lag luam xa tawm hauv tsheb los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Hli yog 4.239 lab, nce ntawm 62.4%, ntawm 527, 000 tau xa tawm thaum Lub Kaum Hli, nce ntawm 49.7%; Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus txog Lub Kaum Hli, kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev yog 3.06 billion teev, nce ntawm 8.4%, ntawm cov 310 lab teev tau xa tawm thaum Lub Kaum Hli, nce ntau dua 21%; Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Hli, tag nrho ntawm 3940 lub nkoj tau xa tawm, nce ntawm 20.2%, thiab kev xa tawm txhua hli nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis tseem nce ntxiv. Nws tuaj yeem pom tau tias qhov nce hauv kev thov xa tawm rau cov khoom kawg tau muab kev txhawb nqa tseem ceeb rau kev thov sab nraud muaj zog rau cov hlau, thiab kuj tau dhau los ua ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm kev txhawb nqa rau lub zog resilience ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam.
Nws yog tsim nyog sau cia tias kev thov hauv tsev xyoo no tsis muaj zog dua li xyoo dhau los. Kev xa tawm tuaj yeem ua tau zoo txaus los cuam tshuam cov kev xav tau hauv tsev tsis muaj zog? Hauv qhov no, Tuam Tshoj Steel Futures steel kws tshawb fawb Li Gang tau hais rau Futures Daily reporter tias tag nrho cov kev thov steel hauv tsev xyoo no poob los ntawm 1.3% piv rau xyoo tas los, tab sis cov qauv ntawm kev sib txawv. Kev thov rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev tsis muaj zog, txuas ntxiv kev ua haujlwm xyoo tas los; Kub coil xav tau yog dav; Qhov kev thov rau nruab nrab thiab tuab phaj, txias dov thiab galvanizing tau nce sai heev. Raws li txoj cai, kev lag luam vaj tse txuas ntxiv tsis muaj zog, thaum lub nkoj tsim khoom, cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab kev lag luam tsheb hauv kev tsim khoom ua tau zoo. Tshwj xeeb, txij lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj hauv tsev steel xav tau txo qis los ntawm 14.874 lab tons, thaum tam sim no xa tawm tau nce los ntawm 13.413 lab tons, feem ntau cuam tshuam cov kev thov hauv tsev txo qis, thiab tom qab ntawd coj mus rau hauv tus account qhov kev xa tawm tsis ncaj ntawm kev lag luam, xyoo no hauv rooj plaub. ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev thov hauv tsev, kev xa tawm los ua rau "girder", tag nrho cov kev thov steel xav kom ua tiav qhov kev loj hlob zoo piv rau xyoo tas los. Kev loj hlob yuav tsum yog 1% mus rau 2%. Qiu Yuecheng, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb ntawm Everbright Futures Black, qhia tib qhov kev xav. Nws ntseeg hais tias kev thov hauv tsev xyoo no yog qhov ruaj khov, tab sis kev tsim qauv. Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev ua haujlwm qeeb ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev, qhov kev thov rau rebar tsis zoo, qhia qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov. Raws li kev hais lus, kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse tau ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv kev thov steel los ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm vaj tse, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kev lag luam tsim, nkoj tsim, tsheb, khoom siv hauv tsev thiab lwm yam kev lag luam yog ci, thiab qhov kev thov rau daim hlau. yog tus muaj zog. "Lub xyoo no, kev tsim kho vaj tse tau khaws cia muaj kev txhawb nqa zoo rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam. Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Hli, lub teb chaws cov peev txheej hauv vaj tse (tsis suav nrog hluav taws xob) tau nce los ntawm 8.27% xyoo-rau-xyoo, uas yog qib siab hauv rau xyoo dhau los." Haitong yav tom ntej peev advisory department dub pab pawg thawj coj Qiu Yihong tau hais.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam kev lag luam boom xyoo no tau nce siab ua ntej thiab qis, thiab txhua xyoo nce siab yog 52.6%, uas tau tshwm sim hauv Lub Ob Hlis. Nyob rau hauv cov sub-indicators, tshwj tsis yog rau cov kev txiav txim nyob rau hauv tes thiab raw khoom inventory Performance index nyob rau hauv lub boom thiab contraction kab, tag nrho cov sub-indicators yog nyob rau hauv keeb kwm siab. Los ntawm qhov kev pom ntawm kev lag luam tawg, kev tsim tsheb thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo oscillating upward trend, dawb cov khoom lag luam tau khaws cia nyob rau theem siab thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, kev lag luam shipbuilding kuj tau muab kev txhawb zog rau kev tsim kev lag luam, tab sis tag nrho cov kev ua tau zoo ntawm kev lag luam. kev tsim kho tshuab kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, tuaj yeem pom tias yog qhov loj tshaj rub ntawm kev tsim khoom lag luam. Qiu Yihong ntseeg tias kev xa tawm nce ntxiv yuav tsis cuam tshuam qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev xav tau hauv tsev. Xyoo no, Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm tau cia siab tias yuav muaj kev loj hlob ntawm 30%-33%, thiab kev lag luam feem ntau rau xyoo tom ntej kev lag luam kev vam meej hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab cov eurozone tau qis dua, qhia tias tag nrho cov European thiab Kev lag luam Asmeskas tseem muaj kev pheej hmoo stagflation. Vim qhov kev tsis txaus ntseeg txuas ntxiv hauv kev lag luam txawv teb chaws, kev xa tawm xav tias yuav poob li ntawm 10% xyoo tom ntej. Qiu Yuecheng ntseeg hais tias kev thov hauv tsev yog qhov tsis muaj zog, cov khoom siv hlau tsis zoo tau nce, tab sis cov khoom lag luam steel tau poob qis me ntsis, qhia tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov hlau xa tawm tsis tau tsuas yog zom cov khoom nce ntxiv, tab sis kuj zom cov khoom muag rau qee yam. Lub export boost rau steel thov yog pom tseeb.
Rau kev lag luam steel, Li Gang ntseeg hais tias los ntawm txoj cai ntawm xyoo dhau los, thaum lub caij off-season, qhov kev lag luam tseem ceeb tau poob qis, thiab qhov hnyav ntawm macro trading tau nce. Nyob rau sab macro, muaj qhov tshwm sim siab uas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav tsis nce cov paj laum ntawm lub rooj sib tham tus paj laum nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, thiab kev ua lag luam xav tias qhov kawg ntawm qhov kev sib tw ntawm cov paj laum no thiab kev txiav tus nqi ceev tshaj plaws yuav pib rau lub Tsib Hlis tom ntej. xyoo; Hnub Friday dhau los lub rooj sib tham ntawm Political Bureau ntawm Central Committee tau teeb tsa cov kev taw qhia ntawm macro txoj cai tseem "zoo", qhov kev siv zog thiab qhov ntsuas nyob twj ywm "mob", thiab tag nrho cov huab cua macro zoo. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, lub rooj sib tham ntawm Political Bureau ntawm lub Central Committee teem ib tug kuj zoo lub suab, hais kom txhawb kev ruaj ntseg, thawj zaug sawv thiab ces tawg, ua rau lub lag luam rau xyoo tom ntej no tsis tu ncua kev loj hlob ntxiv, thiab cov tsoos economic engine xws li vaj tse yuav. tseem muaj qee qhov kev txhawb nqa. Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub sij hawm, txij thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj mus rau nruab nrab Lub ib hlis ntuj xyoo tom ntej, kev ua lag luam tsom rau steel steel raw khoom replenment, tam sim no raw khoom cov khoom muag yog tag nrho cov tsawg, ib zaug steel hlau siab hlau ntau lawm Xyoo Tshiab, tus nqi elasticity ntawm cov khoom siv raw yuav loj dua, thiab tom qab ntawd tus nqi steel sab tsim muaj kev txhawb zog, steel nqi yuav tsum nce thiab poob. Qiu Yihong ntseeg tias tsis muaj qhov tsis sib haum xeeb nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv steel khoom thiab cov qauv xav tau, thiab lub rooj sib tham Politburo ntawm Central Committee tau teeb tsa cov kev taw qhia rau xyoo tom ntej kom ua raws li kev ruaj ntseg ntawm kev vam meej, txhawb kev ruaj ntseg, thawj zaug sawv tom qab tawg. , nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm muaj zog macro kev cia siab tseem muaj nyob, thiab tag nrho cov kev taw qhia ntawm kev ruaj ntseg nyob rau hauv kev tsis ncaj ncees lawm, lub hauv paus siab tsis muaj zog yuav tseem muaj ib tug tej yam kev txhawb nqa ntawm steel nqi. Qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov khoom siv raw ua ntej thiab tom qab Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav xyoo tom ntej yog me me, cov khoom muag qis nyob rau hauv cov nroj tsuag steel Spring Festival replenishment logic zoo kev lag luam kev xav, steel nqi yuav ntxiv dag zog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub Peb Hlis thiab thaum ntxov Plaub Hlis. Kev ua lag luam hlau yuav tsum tau qhia cov yam ntxwv ntawm cov khoom siv nrog rau sab saum toj thiab xav tau nrog rau hauv qab thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, kev ua lag luam oversupply qauv tsis hloov, thiab tus nqi yuav tsum qhia tus N-zoo li tus qauv hauv kev ua si ntawm macro kev cia siab thiab qhov tseeb tiag.
