Lub koom haum tau taw qhia tias nws xav tias Q4 txoj cai xaus lossis yuav siv ntau yam kev ntsuas nyob rau tib lub sijhawm los txhawb kev thov rov qab los, cov nqi hlau hlau poob ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd tau nce, ob chav tsom nqi poob, steel mills tseem poob nyiaj, qee qhov kev kho cua sov, qee qhov kev txo qis ntau lawm, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig txwv kev tsim khoom, steel nqi lossis yuav tuaj tos, zoo siab txog Q4 steel zeb nyiaj kho.
1, 2023Q1-Q3 steel phaj rov zoo heev, uas Q3 ua kom nrawm dua. 2023Q1-Q3 steel sector tau nce, Q3 nrog kev rov qab los ntawm steel xav tau nyob rau hauv ib lub hlis twg, steel nqi nres poob, Q3 rebar nruab nrab nqi poob tsuas yog 1.14%, kub dov nruab nrab nqi poob tsuas yog 1.01%, thiab txias dov nruab nrab nqe sawv 4.33%, txias dov nqi kev ua tau zoo yog muaj zog. 2023Q1-Q3, SW steel sector tau nce 2.14%, qeb duas 17th hauv Shenwan kev lag luam; 2023Q3 ib lub hlis twg SW steel sector tau nce 2.28%, qeb thib 7 hauv Shenwan kev lag luam.
2. Lub lim tiam dhau los, lub teb chaws moj tej tawg rauv ua hauj lwm tus nqi yog 80.12%, ib hlis-rau-hli poob ntawm 2.37pct; kub hlau ntau lawm poob. Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, tag nrho kev noj ntawm tsib pawg loj tau poob me ntsis, thiab kev lag luam ntim ntawm kev tsim kho steel tau nce lub hli dhau los. Ntawm cov khoom siv raw, cov nqi hlau hlau tau nce lub lim tiam dhau los, feem ntau vim tias cov khoom lag luam hlau hlau tau qis qis; cov nqi tsheb kauj vab tau poob; ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, rebar ib tuj steel thiab kub coil tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los tau zoo tuaj, thaum txias dov profits tsis zoo lawm. Ntawm cov khoom muag sab, cov khw muag khoom hauv qab ntawm steel billets tau pom tseeb lub lim tiam no. Txawm hais tias tsib hom loj tau destocked, cov khoom kub coil twb tau nyob rau theem siab tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm, ua rau nws nyuaj rau destock. Nws cia siab tias Q4 txoj cai yuav siv ntau yam kev ntsuas sib npaug los txhawb kev thov rov qab los. Hlau ore nqi ua ntej poob thiab ces sawv, ob-coke nqi poob rov qab, thiab steel mills tseem poob nyiaj. Qee qhov cub tawg tau raug kaw rau kev saib xyuas, qee qhov tau pib ua kom txo qis kev tsim khoom, thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig cov kev txwv ntau lawm tau nce. Cov nqi hlau yuav rov qab los, thiab peb zoo siab txog Q4 steel mills 'cov txiaj ntsig rov qab.
3, plaub qhov loj mines tswj kev xa khoom thiab kev tsim cov hom phiaj tsis hloov pauv, thiab nws xav tias txhua xyoo hlau ore xa khoom thiab chaw nres nkoj tuaj txog yuav nyob ruaj khov piv nrog rau xyoo 2022. Kev thov sab, ua ntej lub koob tsheej steel xav tawm lub caij, steel poob tsis zoo tawm tswv yim. , kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig txwv ntau lawm, molten hlau ntau lawm yuav tsum poob, hlau ore xav tau los yog yuav poob, tam sim no hlau thiab steel tuam txhab kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi poob yog pom tseeb; Nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, steel mills restock ua ntej lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, vim tsis tshua muaj cov khoom muag, hlau ore "cov txheeb ze xav tau" ntsib kev txhawb nqa. Cov khoom muag kawg, steel mills, chaw nres nkoj cov khoom muag yog nyob rau hauv keeb kwm qis, yuav tsum nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis, nrog kev poob qis hauv cov hlau kub, steel zeb cov khoom muag lossis yuav poob qis me ntsis, thiab qhov kawg ntawm lub zeb zeb steel ua ntej hnub so kev xav tau, qhov tsis muaj ntawm kev thov, steel zeb cov khoom muag, chaw nres nkoj cov khoom muag lossis ob qho tib si yuav nce, tab sis vim cov khoom muag qis, tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi hlau ore. Thaum tsis muaj cov khoom tseem ceeb, cov txheeb ze xav tau yog thawj zaug tsis muaj zog thiab tom qab ntawd muaj zog. Hlau ore nqi yuav poob ua ntej lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival.
4, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm steel sector peev nyiaj tuav tau nce me ntsis. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev tuav nyiaj: 2023Q3 steel sector faib tau nce 0.01pct rau 0.44%. Txij li thaum 2020Q4, nrog rau kev txhawb nqa ntawm "ob chav carbon" thiab lwm yam kev cai, tag nrho steel nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus tau nce, kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev lag luam superimposed tau maj mam nce, cov qauv kev sib tw ntawm kev lag luam steel yuav tsum tau txhim kho, thiab qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov nyiaj rau kev faib steel tau maj mam nce, los ntawm 0.15% ntawm 2020Q3 txog 0.80% ntawm 2021Q3. Txawm li cas los xij, raws li qhov chaw nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus ntawm 2021Q4 steel nqi tau txav mus los, cov txiaj ntsig kev cia siab ntawm steel sector deteriorated, thiab kev faib nyiaj ntawm cov nyiaj mus rau steel sector txuas ntxiv poob mus rau 0.38% ntawm 2023Q1. 2023Q2 steel sector faib piv piv tau nce lub quarter rau peb lub hlis twg, 2023Q3 cov nyiaj ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj faib ntawm steel me ntsis poob, tab sis vim tag nrho cov peev nyiaj tuav ntawm tag nrho cov poob yog loj, 2023Q3 steel sector faib piv passively nce los ntawm 0.01pct rau 0.44%.
