Los ntawm kev lag luam steel PMI tshawb xyuas thiab tso tawm los ntawm steel Logistics Professional Committee ntawm Tuam Tshoj iot, nws yog 48.2% nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023, nce 2.6 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los, xaus kev lag luam sib txawv ntawm 45% rau 3 lub hlis sib law liag, qhia tias steel kev lag luam tau ruaj khov nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv. Cov kev hloov pauv sub-index qhia tias kev lag luam xav tau nce. Steel ntau lawm rebounded raws li, raw khoom nqi tau sawv dua, thiab steel nqi tau nce nyob rau hauv poob siab. Nws cia siab tias nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, thaum huab cua txias ntxiv, qhov kev thov sab yuav cog lus, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw yuav poob qis, tus nqi siab ntawm cov hlau yuav poob, thiab kev tsim cov hlau mills yuav poob dua.
Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, kev lag luam steel hauv tsev xav tau kev ua tau zoo tau nce. Ib tug xov tooj ntawm cov yam tseem ceeb tau txhawb qhov kev thov rau steel, thawj, infrastructure, nrog rau kev siv ntawm ib tug trillion tshwj xeeb cov nuj nqis ntawm lub teb chaws thiab cov kev vam meej tsis tu ncua ntawm "peb tej yaam num loj", infrastructure txuas ntxiv mus; Qhov thib ob, hais txog vaj tse, ib puag ncig tshiab ntawm kev tiv thaiv kev ua haujlwm hauv tsev tau ntxiv dag zog, thiab cov kev ntsuas ntau tau qhia nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag. Thib peb, hais txog kev lag luam tseem ceeb, kev lag luam steel tseem ceeb xws li tsheb thiab nkoj tau ua haujlwm zoo; Plaub, hais txog cov nyiaj, RMB qiv tau nce 644.6 billion yuan nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis, nce 831.2 billion yuan xyoo-rau-xyoo. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, qhov ntsuas ntawm kev sib raug zoo nyiaj txiag tau nce los ntawm 1.85 trillion yuan, 910.8 billion yuan ntau dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, cov peev txheej tau zoo dua piv nrog rau lub sijhawm dhau los, thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam tau ua ntau dua. Ua ke, nrog kev txhawb nqa ntawm ntau yam zoo, txawm hais tias Kaum Ib Hlis yog kev lag luam steel cov kev hloov pauv ntawm lub caij nyoog siab tshaj mus rau lub caij tawm, tab sis lub Kaum Ib Hlis xyoo no, kev lag luam steel xav tau khaws los ntawm lub hli dhau los, qhov tshiab. kev txiav txim index yog 49.7%, nce 4.7 feem pua cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub hli dhau los, peb lub hlis sib law liag ntawm lub hli nce. Terminal kev thov yog qhov ua haujlwm ruaj khov, raws li kev saib xyuas ntawm Shanghai davhlau ya nyob twg hlau ntsia hlau cov ntaub ntawv, thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, Shanghai davhlau ya nyob twg yuav tau hloov pauv me ntsis, thiab kev lag luam tseem nyob ruaj khov.
Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, uas tau qeeb hauv lub sijhawm dhau los, tau nce ntxiv, thiab tus nqi siab ntawm steel mills tau nce. Tsav los ntawm me ntsis rov qab los ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev ruaj khov rov qab los ntawm kev muab cov khoom siv raw, cov khoom siv raw khoom txhawb nqa kuj tau ntxiv dag zog. Qhov kev yuav khoom qhov ntsuas yog 46.2%, nce 2.8 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub hli dhau los. Tus nqi yuav khoom yog 77%, nce 17.7 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub hli dhau los, thiab qhov ntsuas tau nce ntau. Los ntawm qeb taw tes ntawm view, hlau ore nqi muaj zog upward, nyob rau hauv Kaum ib hlis, steel thov kom khaws ntau lawm thiab hlau ore xav tau nce, thaum lub lag luam speculation muaj zog, tsav hlau ore nqi tag nrho txoj kev; Tus nqi ntawm coke poob ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd sawv, thiab qhov kev huam yuaj hauv Luliang nyob rau nruab nrab ntawm lub hli ua rau kev soj ntsuam kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov tuam txhab muaj feem cuam tshuam, uas cuam tshuam rau cov khoom lag luam coke rau qee yam, yog li tus nqi rov qab nyob rau hauv qhov thib ob. ib nrab ntawm lub hli; Cov nqi khib nyiab tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm cov ntoo, kev lag luam kev lag luam tau nce, thiab cov nqi tau rov qab los. Zuag qhia tag nrho, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam steel tau nce siab thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, thiab tus nqi siab ntawm steel mills tau nce.
Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, nyob rau hauv ob lub luag haujlwm ntawm kev thov nce thiab nce nqi, cov nqi hlau tau nce siab. Shanghai rebar nqi Performance index qhia tau hais tias nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2, tus nqi yog 3775 yuan / tuj, tus nqi qis tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub hli, thiab tom qab ntawd tag nrho txoj kev mus txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 21, thaum nws nce mus rau qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub hli 4044 yuan / ton. , tus nqi siab tshaj hauv ze li ib nrab xyoo, thiab tom qab ntawd poob me ntsis rau 3998 yuan / ton, tseem nyob rau theem siab. Ntawm tag nrho, tam sim no tus nqi steel tau nce sai, tab sis vim yog tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, qhov teeb meem ntawm cov txiaj ntsig meager ntawm steel mills tsis tau txhim kho zoo. Kev lag luam hlau xav tau yuav tsum tau cog lus rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Ua ntej tshaj plaws, txawm hais tias 1 trillion cov nuj nqis tshwj xeeb hauv tebchaws tau txhaj lub zog muaj zog rau kev thov steel, raws li huab cua hloov mus rau txias, cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev thov steel yuav poob ntxiv. Thib ob, txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Hli, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse thiab thaj chaw tsim vaj tsev tshiab tau poob qis, thiab thaum Lub Kaum Hli, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm vaj tsev boom index tau qis dua tshiab. Tam sim no, tag nrho cov vaj tsev lag luam tseem tab tom loj hlob, qhia tau hais tias txoj cai pov hwm kev tuav pov hwm tau ua tau zoo rau xyoo no, tab sis kev loj hlob ntawm thaj chaw muag khoom thiab kev poob qis ntawm thaj chaw tsim kho tshiab qhia tau tias tsis yog tsuas yog cov kev xav tau hauv av xwb. raug thaiv, tab sis yav tom ntej kev tsim kho cheeb tsam kuj tseem yuav cuam tshuam tsis zoo, yog li kev txhawb nqa vaj tsev luv luv rau kev lag luam steel tseem tsis zoo. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau cia tias Sino-US lub rooj sib tham hauv San Francisco tau mus zoo, kev cia siab rau sab nraud yuav yooj yim, txawm hais tias nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv los ntawm huab cua thiab lwm yam xws li kev thov tau poob, tab sis nyob rau hauv ntev, kev siv ntawm cov kev ntsuas los nthuav dav kev thov hauv tsev, txhawb kev ntseeg siab, tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo, ua ke nrog kev txhim kho ntawm ib puag ncig sab nraud, lub zog sab hauv los ntxiv dag zog rau yav tom ntej steel xav tau tseem muaj lub hauv paus zoo.
Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw tau hloov pauv qis, thiab tus nqi siab ntawm steel poob. Tam sim no, tus nqi siab ntawm cov hlau ore tau txhawj xeeb los ntawm cov haujlwm tseem ceeb, thaum qhov kev poob qis hauv kev thov kuj tseem ua rau nws nyuaj rau cov hauv paus los tswj cov nqi raw khoom siab, speculation nyuaj rau tswj, thiab tus nqi siab ntawm raw khoom. nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm tom qab yog ib qho kev tshwm sim siab heev. Vim qhov kev poob qis hauv kev thov thiab qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm kev txhawb nqa tus nqi, cov nqi steel kuj tseem nyuaj rau kev tswj xyuas qhov tam sim no nrawm nrawm, thiab qhov siab tom ntej yuav tsum poob. Qhov kawg ntawm kev tsim khoom yuav poob dua. Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, kev tsim cov hlau yuav ntsib ntau yam kev nyuaj siab. Ua ntej, kev rov qab los ntawm kev thov nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis thiab qhov nce ntawm cov nqi hlau ua rau kev rov qab los ntawm steel ntau lawm nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis yog qhov nyuaj rau kev tswj xyuas ntxiv. Nrog rau lub caij ntuj no los txog, kev lag luam xav tau yuav poob qis nrog huab cua txias ntxiv, thiab cov nqi hlau kuj tseem yuav poob qis vim qhov kev thov poob qis, thiab cov khoom siv txhawb nqa tsis txaus. Qhov thib ob, tuaj txog ntawm lub caij cua sov yuav txwv kev tsim cov hlau mills. Thib peb, tam sim no tus nqi hlau ore yog siab, tus nqi siab ntawm kev lag luam yog nce, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov nqi steel yuav tsum poob, cov khoom txaus siab ntawm cov lag luam yog qhov nyuaj rau lav. Plaub, tam sim no cov khoom lag luam siab siab kuj muaj qee yam cuam tshuam rau kev tsim khoom. Raws li kev sib koom ua ke ntawm ntau yam, qhov kawg ntawm kev tsim khoom yuav poob dua. Cov tuam txhab lag luam kuj tseem muaj qee qhov kev npaj rau kev poob qis hauv kev cia siab ntawm kev tsim khoom, txo cov khoom muag ntawm cov khoom siv raw, cov khoom lag luam cov khoom lag luam raw khoom yog 42.5%, nqis 1.7 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los.
