Hnub Wednesday sawv ntxov, kev lag luam lus xaiv hais tias Shanxi Lu 'ib pab pawg thee mine npaj yuav txo cov khoom lag luam los ntawm 17 lab tons, thiab Shanmei International thee mine npaj yuav txo qis kev tsim khoom los ntawm 8 lab tons, ua rau kom nruj dua coking thee kev cia siab, coking thee futures price nce sharply, thiab ces txhawb steel nqi. Txawm li cas los xij, tag nrho cov coking thee qhov chaw tus nqi kev ua tau zoo yog qhov ruaj khov, Changzhi Luzhou coking thee online twv txiaj pauv nqi poob me ntsis. Tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv dub tau poob rau ob hnub sib law liag, tab sis tus nqi ntawm cov coke thiab hlau tau nce siab nag hmo, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov hlau ore tseem poob qis heev. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 20, qhov chaw tus nqi ntawm Shanghai rebar yog 3830 yuan / tuj, nqis 0.78% piv nrog rau hnub so ua ntej; Daim ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb ntawm lub Tsib Hlis ntawm rebar yav tom ntej kaw ntawm 3,753 yuan / ton, nqis 2.6% los ntawm ua ntej hnub so. Rau qhov poob qis ntawm ob hnub sib law liag tom qab kev ua koob tsheej, Zhuo Guiqiu, tus kws ntsuam xyuas laus ntawm Jinrui Capital Black, ntseeg tias thawj zaug yog suppressed los ntawm cov khoom muag siab ntawm rebar nws tus kheej. Thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, lub caij nyoog sib sau ntawm rebar tau nce los ntawm 1.63 lab tons piv nrog ua ntej lub koob tsheej, thiab lub xyoo lunar tau nce los ntawm 954,{14}} tons, thiab qhov piv ntawm kev cia khoom tau nce siab tshiab nyob rau tib lub sijhawm. ntawm lub hli xyoo nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no. Qhov thib ob yog qhov qeeb rov qab ntawm molten hlau ntau lawm, 247 steel mills molten hlau txhua hnub tso zis ntawm 2,245,600 tons, lub hli xyoo txo 20,100 tons, tab sis cov hlau steel imported hlau ore cia noj piv thiab coking cog coking thee cia noj piv yog siab dua. Tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, ua rau muaj kev tawm tsam tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom siv raw, rub tus nqi steel. Thib peb, qhov nce ntawm cov khoom siv ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau ore mines tau dhau qhov kev cia siab, thiab qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi hlau ore ntxiv rub tus nqi hlau. Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb qhia tau hais tias thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, 45 qhov chaw nres nkoj ntawm cov hlau ore mus rau qhov chaw nres nkoj ntawm 25.285 lab tons, qhov pib tsis hloov ntawm lub lim tiam ua ntej lub koob tsheej, tab sis qhov kev rov qab qeeb ntawm cov hlau kub ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm cov hlau ore cia. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, muaj cov lus ceeb toom tias Brazil thiab Ukraine nyob rau lub Ib Hlis hlau ore xa khoom tau tshaj qhov kev cia siab, ntxiv rau cov khoom siv tsis yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb mine hlau ore muab kev loj hlob tshaj qhov xav tau thiab cov hlau ore tshuav nyiaj li cas muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau ntxiv.
Wang Jingjing, tus kws ntsuam xyuas laus ntawm Zhongda Futures, ntseeg tias kev muag khoom vaj tse thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival feem ntau zoo, thiab kev ua lag luam cia siab tias qhov kev thov steel yuav tsis muaj zog ntxiv tom qab lub koob tsheej. Txij li thaum Lub Kaum Hli xyoo tas los, txhawb nqa los ntawm cov cai hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, kev ua lag luam feem ntau zoo siab txog qhov kev thov rau lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo no, thiab cov nqi rov qab rau yav tom ntej kuj tau nce tsis tu ncua, thiab lub sijhawm ua lag luam xav tau ntxov dua li xyoo dhau los, thiab qhov nce ntxiv. kuj siab. Los ntawm micro-cov ntaub ntawv pom, txawm hais tias nws yog vaj tsev lossis peb txoj haujlwm loj, nws yuav siv sijhawm los pib, thiab cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom vaj tse superimposed tsis tau pom muaj kev txhim kho tseem ceeb, thiab tus nqi rebar yav tom ntej tau pib kho txij li. Lub Ib Hlis. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov khoom siv thaum ntxov thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv raw cov khoom sib npaug nruj, tus nqi tseem txhawb nqa, tab sis nrog kev poob sai sai ntawm cov hlau kub txhua hnub thiab kev rov qab qeeb ntawm cov hlau kub tom qab kev ua koob tsheej, cov khoom siv thiab kev thov ntawm cov khoom siv raw. maj mam hloov ntawm qhov sib npaug nruj mus rau me ntsis xoob, qhib qhov chaw rau qhov kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom dub tam sim no. "Txawm hais tias tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm rebar tom qab lub koob tsheej loj, qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb tsis pom tseeb los ntawm qhov xwm txheej tseem ceeb. Thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival xyoo no, cov tsub zuj zuj ntawm rebar tau qis dua qhov xav tau." Liu Huifeng, tus kws tshawb fawb ntawm cov hlau dub ntawm East China Sea Futures, tau hais tias los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm, thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival ntawm tsib xyoos dhau los, qhov nruab nrab rebar cov khoom muag yog 3.375 lab tons, thiab xyoo no nws yog 1.6282 lab tons. , txawm tias koj tsis xav txog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis hauv thawj ob xyoos, qhov nce kuj tseem nyob rau theem qis. Raws li qhov kev xav tau tam sim no tseem nyob rau lub caij so, qhov xwm txheej ntawm qhov chaw muag khoom tom qab hnub so tsis tau txhim kho. Nws tau nkag siab tias xyoo no, lub caij ntuj no cia tus nqi ntawm rebar feem ntau yog 3800-3850 yuan / ton, ob hnub ua lag luam tom qab kev ua koob tsheej, tus nqi poob qis heev, tab sis hnub Wednesday los ntawm Shanxi thee mine ntau lawm txwv thiab ntau ntawm macro. cov kev cai zoo, rebar phaj nqi rebounded ho, kev lag luam kev xav tau zoo tuaj. Kev ua raws li kev muag khoom ntawm lub caij ntuj no cia khoom tseem yuav tsum tau soj ntsuam kev rov qab los ntawm kev thov nyob rau lub caij ntuj no.
Nws tau tshaj tawm tias tam sim no qhov chaw rov pib dua thiab tus nqi zog ua haujlwm tseem nyob rau theem qis. Raws li Centennial siv network txheeb cais, txij Lub Ob Hlis 14 txog 20, lub teb chaws 10,094 qhov chaw tsim kho tau rov ua haujlwm ntawm 13.0%, nce ntawm 2 feem pua cov ntsiab lus hauv lunar calendar; Tus nqi ua haujlwm yog 15.5%, nce ntawm 0.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus hauv lunar calendar. "Cov kev tsim kho tseem ceeb hauv lub tebchaws feem ntau pom tau tias tag nrho cov haujlwm tau txo qis xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab tus nqi rov qab mus ua haujlwm thiab tus nqi ntawm kev ua haujlwm tau nce xyoo-rau-xyoo, feem ntau los ntawm kev pib sai dua. ntawm kev tsim kho qhov project." Yog li ntawd, qhov kev thov rau kev tsim kho steel tseem nyob hauv qab thiab yuav tsum tau tso tawm ntxiv. "Zhuo Guiqiu hais tias, Wang kuj tau hais tias qhov kev thov qis qis rau cov hlau feem ntau pib tom qab hnub kaum tsib ntawm thawj lub hli hli. Kev lag luam, qhov kev thov tiag tiag tom qab hnub so tseem nyuaj rau kev txiav txim siab. Los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, qhov pom meej thov rau rebar yog ze rau tib lub sij hawm nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los; Ntawm cov khoom siv, vim qhov kev poob ntawm cov hlau. mills, ntau lawm ntawm rebar tau cog lus sharply thiab yog tam sim no nyob rau hauv ib tug tsawg kawg nkaus theem; ntawm cov khoom muag, rebar cov khoom muag tseem nyob rau hauv ib tug tsawg txoj hauj lwm nyob rau tib lub sij hawm. ntawm rebar yog tsis pom tseeb, tab sis nrog kev tso tawm ntawm qhov kev thov nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm tom qab, thiab cov xov ntau lawm yog cuam tshuam los ntawm cov txiaj ntsig sib txawv ntawm ntau yam sib txawv, nws xav tias qhov kev rov qab los qeeb, thiab cov khoom muag yog nyob rau hauv ib qho chaw qis. , nws xav tias yuav muaj nthwv dej ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov tsis sib haum tom qab lub koob tsheej.
Liu Huifeng ntseeg hais tias ob lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam tam sim no yog qhov kev xav tau tsawg thiab kev txhawb nqa tus nqi qis. Tom ntej no, "kub peb nyiaj plaub" tab tom los, kev lag luam rebar yuav nkag mus rau theem kev pov thawj ntawm kev xav tau tiag tiag, lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua lag luam yuav tig mus rau qhov kev xav tau tiag tiag, qhov taw qhia zoo tshaj plaws yog thaum cov khoom muag pom tshwm thiab cov cov khoom muag hauv qab tom qab lub warehouse ceev. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev hloov kho txoj cai nyob rau lub Peb Hlis thaum ntxov thiab cov kev cai uas yuav ua tau kuj tseem yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua lag luam. "Raws li cov xwm txheej ib txwm muaj, kev ua lag luam tom qab hnub so feem ntau ua si qhov kev thov rau cov hlau, tab sis qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb tseem ceeb ntawm theem no yog qhov rov pib dua ntawm cov hlau kub, qhov kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo tshwm sim los ntawm cov khoom lag luam siab ntawm cov khoom siv raw, thiab tus nqi tsav tus nqi. kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom tiav. " Saib rau yav tom ntej kev lag luam, qhov kev thov rau rebar yuav tsum tau tso tawm raws caij nyoog, tab sis lub zog tseem yuav tsum tau soj ntsuam, uas tuaj yeem taug qab thiab txheeb xyuas los ntawm lub rooj rebar. Hais txog cov khoom muag, feem ntau yog 3-4 lub lis piam tom qab kev ua koob tsheej rebar yuav txuas ntxiv mus, thiab qhov amplitude yuav maj mam qeeb. Ua ntej cov khoom lag luam hloov pauv, nws cia siab tias tus nqi rebar yuav txuas ntxiv mus tsis muaj zog uas tau tsav los ntawm tus nqi qis. "Zhuo Guiqiu tau hais. Wang Jing ntseeg tias nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv, lub sijhawm tam sim no lub tshuab nqus tsev tseem yog lub sijhawm nqus ntawm macro txoj cai, nyob rau hauv qhov kev thov dag los yog kev pom zoo, ua ntej kev taw qhia ntawm macro cov cai dua, lub ntsiab trading logic ntawm kev ua lag luam tseem yuav xav tau rov qab tsawg dua li qhov xav tau. Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub sij hawm, lub lag luam tau pib ua lag luam steel thov nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov Lub ib hlis ntuj kom rov qab tsawg dua. tshaj qhov xav tau logic, thiab cov nqi yuav tsum nyob ze rau hauv qab ntawm qhov kev hloov kho no.Nyob rau theem tom ntej, peb yuav tsum tsom mus rau kev rov qab los ntawm kev thov.
